More than twice as many people are falling ill in Liberia, Sierra Leone as reported, health officials say
WebMD News from HealthDay
By Dennis Thompson
HealthDay Reporter
TUESDAY, Sept. 23, 2014 (HealthDay News) -- Infections from the Ebola epidemic in Liberia and Sierra Leone could soar to 1.4 million cases by mid-January unless the global community mounts a rapid response to the West African crisis, according to new estimates released Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
This projection is based on a new CDC model that assumes people are being infected with Ebola at a geometrically increasing rate, and that there are 2.5 times more cases than are being reported, the agency said in its new report.
However, this worst-case scenario likely is already out of date, given the international relief response to the epidemic during the past month, CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden said during a morning news conference.
The reported projections are based on numbers from the end of August, and since then the United States and other nations have stepped up their relief efforts.
"One of the things that's been so striking is how fluid things have been on the ground," Frieden said. "Even a week or two ago, I would have expected things to look differently than they do now."
Ebola cases in West Africa currently have reached an estimated 5,800 infections in people and more than 2,800 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.
The new CDC model specifically focuses on the value of isolating Ebola patients to prevent spread of the deadly virus. The agency found that up to now, total Ebola cases are doubling approximately every 20 days in the two countries because people with the virus are coming into contact with healthy people and infecting them.
If seven out of 10 Ebola patients were isolated in their homes or a treatment center, the epidemic in both Liberia and Sierra Leone could be broken by mid-January -- a drastically different projection than the worst-case scenario, officials said.
"If you get enough people effectively isolated, the epidemic can be stopped," Frieden said. "Related to that, when you reach a higher enough number, the number of cases plummets rapidly, almost as rapidly as the exponential rise we're seeing now."
The CDC, the Department of Defense and USAID all are pouring resources and manpower into West Africa, joined by efforts from the United Nations and other countries, said Gayle Smith, special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director of the National Security Council.
"We think these things that were not fully in play are things that can contribute to bending the [epidemic's] curve," Smith said.
International relief efforts have been increased in recent weeks, but the virus continues to spread. Part of the problem: There aren't enough hospital beds, health workers or even soap and water in the hardest-hit countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the Associated Press reported.
source : Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in Months, CDC Predicts
